Whilst rail is recognised as an important pillar of passenger and freight transport to this day, it is recognised that other motorised modes of transport are piling pressure and there may very well be a decline in its use by 2050. Autonomous car technologies and electric vehicles are certainly expected to be a real threat in the not distant future. This is also on the back of data by the International Energy Agency which notes that growth of rail lags behind that of maritime and heavy truck freight activity. Consequently, the share of rail in overall freight activity will decline from 7 percent in 2017 to 5 percent by 2050.
The vulnerability of freight transportation was exposed by lockdowns as a result of the pandemic. On the contrary, Eurostat highlights that the Covid- 19 pandemic seems to have had a lower impact on rail freight transport than rail passenger transport in the EU, with rail freight transportation declining by 5.9 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. The same trend is noted in the US and Russia which recorded 2 105 254 million ton-km and 2 545 349 million ton-km respectively. This represents a 2.2 percent decrease for Russia compared to 2019 and a 11 percent decrease for the USA compared to 2019 figures. Interestingly a similar trend is observed in South Africa.
The freight transportation results for September 2021 by StatsSA state that the volume of goods transported (payload) increased by 3,3% in September 2021 compared with September 2020.
Read: Land Transport (Preliminary)
There is no doubt which nations dominate rail freight transportation on this front. Arguably China, USA and Russia are leading nations.